Why Australia is different

Australia's coal-fired generators are retiring. The shift to renewables is well underway, with renewables accounting for 40% of the total electricity delivered through the National Electricity Market in 2023. See: AEMO's 2024 Integrated System Plan Overview.

While nuclear power has a decarbonisation role to play in countries without our natural advantages, the evidence shows it is too expensive and too slow to roll out in Australia and its potential is eclipsed by solar and wind. This is confirmed in the recent 2023/24 GenCost Report produced by Australia's independent national science agency, CSIRO and the 2024 Integrated System Plan, which is the roadmap for the transition of the National Electricity Market, produced by the independent Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

The prospect of nuclear power in Australia has been debated since the 1950s. Independent reviews have consistently concluded that nuclear energy in Australia is not viable. Historically, this was because of the low cost and wide availability of coal. Now, it is because of our competitive advantages in renewable energy, which has become the lowest cost form of energy in the last decade, due to technological developments.

There are no nuclear power plants in Australia, no infrastructure, no regulatory agency or workforce. Nuclear power is currently banned in Australia and there is no development pipeline.

The cost

The cost of building nuclear power plants in Australia to replace existing coal plants as they are retired would be the most expensive form of energy.  The cheapest would be wind and solar renewables with firming. See: 2023/24 GenCostReport xii and xiii. This applies whether the nuclear power is from large-scale nuclear power plants or from small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs have the additional challenge of being significantly more expensive than even large-scale nuclear and currently is not a commercially proven technology.

The timing

The earliest deployment of large-scale nuclear in Australia (or SMRs, if commercially proven) would be from 2040, assuming a decision now to pursue nuclear with broad political support for legislative changes. See: 2023/24 GenCost Report pages 35,36. This 15+ year timeframe takes into account the absence of a development timeline and additional legal, safety, security and community engagement steps.

Our coal-fired power plants are due to be retired before 2040 so this would leave a supply gap.  If this gap is filled with fossil fuels, this pathway causes unnecessary additional climate pollution.

Regulatory and viability barriers

As well as the current Federal ban, many activities required for nuclear energy are also banned by different States, with States showing little appetite to reduce these bans.  Nuclear energy also depends heavily on access to water, which is a significant and growing issue in our climate.

Nuclear and our energy grids

The scale of the Coalition’s commitment to nuclear has not been disclosed, but it appears that it would only provide a fraction of Australia's electricity at an exorbitant taxpayer-funded cost.

Nuclear provides 'baseload power', which cannot be ramped up and down easily to supplement cheaper renewables.  This lack of flexibility means it would not be compatible with Australia's evolving energy needs.

Investment uncertainty

Opening up debate about nuclear energy in Australia creates investment uncertainty for renewable energy projects, which would provide lower cost energy.   Last year, renewables contributed 30% of global power generation and nuclear only 9%.  See: Energy Institute 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy.  Renewables are growing rapidly – in 2004 it took a year to install 1 gigawatt of solar capacity, which is now installed daily across the world. See: The Economist in its 22 June 2024 special issue "Dawn of the Solar Age".

Based on the current evidence from our best scientists and economists, I support continued commitment to the cheapest and cleanest pathway to net zero, relying on our solar and wind advantages.