Australia’s embrace of independent political candidates shows there’s no such thing as a safe seat (28 Mar 2025)
Article summary: The 2022 federal election marked a significant shift in Australian politics, delivering the largest lower house crossbench in the nation's post-war history. Alongside four Greens MPs and two from minor parties, ten independents were elected—seven of them new—signalling a break from the traditional two-party dominance.
These crossbenchers are not bound by party-room voting commitments and are free to vote on each piece of legislation independently. In the Senate, proportional representation helped micro-parties and independents secure several of the 40 available seats, including Senator David Pocock and representatives from Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the United Australia Party.
Subsequent defections during the 47th Parliament have bolstered the crossbench further, including five former Coalition MPs and Senators and Labor’s Fatima Payman, who left over the party’s stance on Palestine and launched the Australia’s Voice party.
Despite their growing influence, independents face significant barriers when contesting federal elections. They lack access to electoral rolls, initial public funding, and cannot be listed above the line on Senate ballots without forming a group or party. Moreover, unless they are already incumbents, independents miss out on advantages worth approximately $2.9 million per term in salary, staff, and resources. Yet, once elected, independents have proven difficult to unseat, with notable successes including Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie, and Zali Steggall.
The traditional classification of seats as “safe”, “fairly safe”, or “marginal” is losing relevance in a landscape where independent candidates can win on relatively low primary votes. For example, Kylea Tink secured North Sydney in 2022 with only 25% of the primary vote, highlighting the importance of preference flows and community engagement.
Looking ahead, several crossbench contests may play a decisive role in a potentially hung parliament. Kate Chaney, who won the Perth seat of Curtin in 2022, is facing a significant challenge. Chaney’s performance in this contest is likely to be closely scrutinised nationally.
The Liberal Party is attempting to counter independents by fielding candidates with similar public profiles. Examples include Jaimee Rogers against Zali Steggall in Warringah and Ro Knox against Allegra Spender in Wentworth. In Kooyong, Monique Ryan will face Amelia Hamer, while in Mackellar, the Liberal Party has chosen James Brown, diverging from its strategy of “like-for-like” candidates. Former MPs such as Gerard Rennick, Ian Goodenough, and Russell Broadbent are running as independents or under newly formed parties in efforts to retain their seats.
Groups like Climate 200 and the Regional Voices Fund are backing a new wave of community independents in both city and regional areas. Candidates such as Carolyn Heise in Cowper, Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, and Alex Dyson in Wannon are among those vying to join the growing crossbench. Even in Labor-held seats, independents are mounting strong challenges, indicating that the 2025 election could see further erosion of major party dominance.
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