Teal towns (22 Mar 2025)
Article summary: Polling seen by The Saturday Paper suggests that independent candidates—particularly those supported by Climate 200—are poised to expand their influence in the next federal election, potentially securing victories in electorates well beyond the traditional teal strongholds.
A key example is the Nationals-held seat of Cowper in New South Wales, where independent Caz Heise is projected to overtake incumbent Pat Conaghan. Heise, who came close in 2022 with 47.68% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, now polls at 53%, according to a Climate 200-commissioned survey of 980 voters. Despite a 3% margin of error, the trend indicates a serious threat to Coalition incumbents.
What makes Cowper notable is its demographic dissimilarity to prior teal-won electorates: it is older, less affluent, and less educated. This indicates a potential broadening of appeal for independents beyond inner-city, progressive seats. A similar pattern is emerging in Lyne, another Nationals seat, where support for incumbent Dr David Gillespie has dipped to 39%, well below the 43% "danger zone" threshold identified by Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes à Court.
Beyond Cowper and Lyne, Climate 200 polling suggests independents have a strong chance in diverse electorates including Forrest (WA), Flinders (Vic), and Bradfield (NSW). Bradfield, previously held by outgoing moderate Liberal Paul Fletcher, shows independent candidate Nicolette Boele leading with 52% after preferences. Rural seats like Forrest and Flinders are also within reach, with projected independent votes of 49%—a result close enough to be viable considering the margin of error.
The broader implication is a rising disenchantment with major parties. Independent or minor party candidates already hold a record 15 seats in the House of Representatives. At the 2022 election, 30% of voters chose non-major party options. This trend is reinforced by recent polling indicating a continued slump in primary votes for both Labor and the Coalition, with disaffected voters increasingly drawn to independents and the Greens.
Kate Chaney, who won the historically Liberal seat of Curtin in 2022 in one of the election’s most surprising results, is now considered the most vulnerable of the teal incumbents. A low-sample Murdoch poll predicted her defeat, along with other teals, but larger-scale YouGov polling and Climate 200 data suggest otherwise with the YouGov poll indicating Chaney will be returned with a 2% greater margin. Chaney herself acknowledges the uncertainty: “The community will make up its mind, and I will cry or I will celebrate.”
The political climate has shifted since 2022. While the initial teal wave was driven by dissatisfaction with the Coalition's stance on climate change, gender equity, and integrity, cost-of-living issues now dominate. Independent candidates have adapted, with figures like Boele explicitly highlighting rising prices and housing pressures over traditional teal issues.
Political strategists suggest the rise of "double haters"—voters who reject both major parties—is fueling this shift. Many of these voters, particularly from younger demographics, express no allegiance to existing parties. Their unpredictable preferences may play a decisive role in the election, and may favour independents who present as honest brokers rather than partisan operatives.
