Will Chaney be kingmaker? (4 Nov 2024)
Article summary: Sunday Times political editor, Joe Spagnolo, explores how Western Australian MP Kate Chaney could play a pivotal role in determining the future of Australia’s government after the upcoming federal election. Spagnolo suggests that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who faces flagging support nationally and in WA, may find himself relying on independent MPs like Chaney if neither major party secures a parliamentary majority, resulting in a hung parliament. With four WA seats, including Pearce, Swan, Hasluck, and Tangney, critical for Labor’s success, WA voters will be essential in either re-electing Albanese or shifting power towards Liberal leader Peter Dutton. However, should no party emerge with a decisive majority, both leaders may need to negotiate with independents to form a minority government—a scenario in which Chaney could emerge as a key figure, or “kingmaker.”
Elected in 2022 as a Teal independent for the Curtin electorate, Chaney unseated a Liberal incumbent with substantial financial backing from Climate 200, a political fundraising group led by Simon Holmes à Court. Despite Dutton’s assertion that she would never align with the Liberals, Chaney’s position in a hung parliament could allow her to leverage influence over issues central to WA’s interests. Spagnolo draws a parallel between Chaney’s potential role and that of Brendon Grylls, the former WA Nationals leader who successfully negotiated the "Royalties for Regions" scheme in 2008, securing significant rural funding in exchange for supporting a Liberal government under Colin Barnett.
One critical issue that could influence Chaney’s stance is the Albanese government's plan to end live sheep exports by 2028, a policy she has recently expressed opposition towards after previously supporting. If Chaney demands a reversal of this policy as a condition for supporting Albanese, it could serve as a concession to WA’s agricultural sector. Furthermore, Chaney could push for stronger WA representation in Cabinet, an effort to address long-standing sentiments that WA’s interests are often sidelined at the federal level.
Chaney’s potential influence as a kingmaker highlights her importance not only to WA’s electorate but also to the broader balance of power in Australian federal politics. With this election likely to yield a close result, Chaney’s decision on who to support—if indeed she holds such power—could set the course for WA’s role in national policy-making and help define her own political legacy.
