Without Scott Morrison to hate on, can teals deal a blow to the Coalition this election? (11 Jan 2025)
Article summary: The 2025 federal election presents a new challenge for teal independents, who rose to prominence in 2022 by capitalising on voter dissatisfaction with the Coalition’s stance on climate change, integrity, and women’s issues under Scott Morrison. With Morrison gone, Labor in power, and cost-of-living concerns dominating public discourse, the political dynamics have shifted.
Byron Fay, executive director of Climate 200, a not-for-profit, crowd-funding platform, acknowledges the obstacles but highlights opportunities, including the strong performance of incumbents such as Kate Chaney, Allegra Spender and Zoe Daniel, and the ongoing erosion of major party support.
Climate 200 has already raised $7.6m for 2025, surpassing early 2022 totals, aiming to back up to 30 candidates. Polling indicates the Coalition’s primary vote in several key seats is near or below 40%, making them vulnerable to teal challengers.
Seats such as Goldstein, Curtin, Bradfield, and Wentworth remain focal points, with localised issues such as antisemitism and cost-of-living pressures influencing voter sentiment. Fay notes it often takes two election cycles for independents to gain traction, with some candidates, like Deb Leonard in Monash, better positioned for success after refining their campaigns.
Meanwhile, the teals have resisted pressure to declare which party they would support in a hung parliament, maintaining flexibility in their potential role as kingmakers. Analysts suggest the Liberals’ focus on outer-suburban electorates may alienate the “small-l Liberals” who turned to teals in 2022, further eroding major party dominance.
Kos Samaras, a political strategist, argues that voter disillusionment with major parties stems from their perceived inability to tackle existential issues like tax reform and housing. This discontent continues to fuel the appeal of independents and could reshape the Australian political landscape in 2025.
