All signs point to a hung parliament: what does this mean, and what should crossbenchers do? (30 Mar 2025)
Article summary: As Australia enters the 2025 federal election campaign, it faces an unusually high likelihood of a hung parliament — a scenario where no major party secures the 76 seats required for a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives. A February YouGov poll placed the probability of this outcome at 78%, and even after a slight improvement for Labor in March, the likelihood remained high at over 61%. The political landscape has shifted significantly since the 2022 election, which saw a large and diverse crossbench emerge, including teals and Greens, reflecting a decline in major party support.
The spectre of a hung parliament has prompted concerns in some media, with The Australian describing a possible “parliamentary flea circus”. However, former independent Rob Oakeshott, who helped form government in 2010, dismissed these fears as rhetoric. He praised the current crossbenchers as “pretty smart operators” capable of responsible negotiation. Oakeshott and fellow 2010 crossbencher Tony Windsor stressed the importance of calm, principled negotiation rather than pre-emptive deal-making.
Crossbench influence has grown steadily as voter disillusionment with major parties deepens. The Australian Election Study described the post-2022 result as a “seismic shift” in voter behaviour, highlighting a growing preference for independents and minor parties. Newspoll and Essential polling shows nearly one in three voters now support non-major candidates. George Megalogenis, in his Quarterly Essay, noted that the crossbench is increasingly composed of urban-based, professional women, and argued this composition offers the chance for political renewal — though it may also generate new forms of gridlock.
Climate 200, which played a key role in the rise of the teals, is backing 35 campaigns in 2025 — 12 more than in 2022. Candidates supported by both Climate 200 and the Community Independents Project are expected to feature prominently. Electoral redistributions and the retirement of over a dozen sitting MPs have further unsettled the electoral landscape.
If neither party gains a majority, forming government will hinge on securing crossbench backing for “confidence and supply” — the parliamentary support needed to avoid no-confidence motions and ensure funding bills pass. Professor Anne Twomey, a constitutional law expert, clarified that the Governor-General appoints the individual most likely to command majority support in the House, not necessarily the leader of the party with the most seats. She described confidence and supply arrangements as political, not legal, and often verbal “gentleman’s agreements”.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese has ruled out negotiating with crossbenchers, insisting he intends to govern with a majority. By contrast, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has stated he would be open to discussions with select independents, but excluded prominent teals such as Kate Chaney, Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel, whom he claimed would “never” back the Coalition.
As campaigning intensifies, pressure will mount on crossbench candidates to clarify their post-election intentions. However, veterans like Windsor and Oakeshott advise caution, urging independents to resist pressure, avoid “horse trading”, and retain leverage through the strategic use of their no-confidence vote. The result could define the evolving shape of Australian politics — one increasingly influenced by independents like Kate Chaney.
